Is it possible to reduce energy costs without using nuclear power?

Abstract

Calculations of strategies for the world power industry have been carried out. The strategies will provide mankind with long-term and sufficient maintenance energy supplies. In the following article, results of calculations for a period from 2000 through 2500 are submitted taking into account environmental restrictions. The strategies imply assume the competitive use of primary power resources - coal, natural gas, petroleum, hydro resources, uranium and thorium in nuclear power and solar energy. 

The peculiarity of calculations was that they have been carried out according to optimized power model of super size range, which is a component of TOBAS computerized complex of optimized programs. 

In this work1) we have tried to compare cost of living of mankind using two worlds: one without nuclear energy and another - with. As well we tried to evaluate the degree of distinction between costs.

At the some time we have based our research on optimal strategies of the development of the world economy. In other words we wanted to provide mankind with an opportunity of cheaper and better life, which is good to strive for.

The features, which belong to these two worlds, are given below.

The world with a nuclear energy assumes the use of a power sources, which are effective themselves, or in a combination between themselves to provide mankind with energy substenantally and for a long period of future time. There is coal, natural gas, mineral oil, hydro resources, a nuclear energy and a solar energy 2).

The world without nuclear energy takes into account that all requirements of mankind for energy are satisfied by to traditional power sources (coal, natural gas, mineral oil, hydro resources) and a solar energy if it is required. In this case the nuclear power industry (NPI) it is artificial stops the existence to the beginning of scheduled interval with accepted period of 500 years.

In the calculations we accepted conditions, which are not most not favorable to functioning of the nuclear power industry strengthening a competition of the nuclear power industry with other power source. We tried to determine if nuclear power could survive in these conditions or not.

The calculations have been carried out according to optimized models and database, which have been entered in the TOBAS computerized complex of optimized programs. The TOBAS is written on the FORTRAN and is intended for optimization (decision making) of multihierarchic multidimensional frames of as much as large complexity. The philosophy TOBAS allows to fill in it with any models. At will user TOBAS is located with the allowed (matched) or optimum solution. TOBAS is capable to solve problems of as much as large dimension. Actual (unique) limitation at the solution of such problems is the resources of the computer (“hard wear”).

For a reference mark (zero) scheduled interval, it is possible to accept 2000 or 2010.
In the present article all years of scheduled interval are marked by the "SIn" character, for example 100 years of scheduled interval: 100 years SIn.

Comparison of two worlds:
Without nuclear energy and with nuclear energy

The calculations have shown that the optimum plan of maintenance of mankind energy at use of traditional power technologies without participation of nuclear power results in full exhaustion of authentic stocks of power resources during the first 250 years SIn. (Authentically known world reserves of natural gas come to an end in 50 ¸ 100 years SIn, petroleum - in 100 ¸ 150 years SIn, coal - in 200 ¸ 250 years SIn.). Further the plan demands inclusion in a revolution of prospective stocks of these power resources. Such a plan of maintenance of mankind energy will cost 122.5 TUSD (TUSD = 1012 USD). And this plan is possible provided that prospective stocks of natural gas, petroleum, and coal actually exist and the large amount, differently it is necessary to close the power balance with the help of the most expensive power sources (for example to connect a solar energy).

The optimum strategy including nuclear power is more economic and effective. At use of nuclear power together with power technologies at a coal, natural gas, mineral oil, hydro resources, and also a solar energy, nuclear power technologies completely supersede all other power technologies on all 500 years SIn. Thus all stocks of coal, natural gas, and petroleum are kept unused. In this case limits of exhaustion of authentically known and prospective world reserves of coal, natural gas, and petroleum are removed for limits of the considered interval of planning, i.e. for limits of 500 years SIn. Thus, these initial resources are kept for needs of the future generations.

The optimum plan of the world with nuclear energy will cost for mankind in 25.9 ¸ 26.5 TUSD. Thus in an atmosphere incommensurably smaller quantity of harmful substances (see fig.1) is thrown out.

If mankind choose the world with nuclear energy it will bring to it economy equaling:

122.5 - 26.5 = 96.0 (TUSD).

In view of the norm of discounting equal 0.05 year-1, the annual economy will make size:

96.0 TUSD ´ 0.05 year-1 = 4.8 TUSD/year.

We shall estimate this size in the saved human life. We accept, that, spending 106 USD (on labor safety, safety of technologies and lives, public health services, etc.), we save one human life. Then economy in 4.8 TUSD/year annually (or to keep) will enable us to rescue life almost five millions people in the world in which already to 100 year SIn of an interval of planning will live ~ 12 billions persons. 

Probably, for the people, with mistrust concerning nuclear power, the arguments given in its advantage are unpersuasive or insufficient. We nevertheless hope to shake mistrust of nuclear power, having addressed fig.2.

On fig. 2 diagrams of the prices for electric power for optimum plans of the world without a nuclear energy, the world with nuclear energy in absence breeders and the world with nuclear energy are submitted at presence breeders. We pay attention that a logarithmic scale submits the vertical axis - the price of electric power. If to develop the world without nuclear energy (see the diagram “a”) mankind by 15 year SIn of an interval of planning should pay for the electric power about 18 cUSD/(kW×h), by 40 year SIn - about 44 cUSD/(kW×h), and by 75 year SIn – about 101 cUSD/(kW×h), i.e. about 1 US dollar for kilowatt-hour. After 75 years SIn of growth of the price of the electric power so by the 375 year SIn the price of the electric power will exceed 15 US dollars for kilowatt-hour follows.

If to develop world with nuclear energy at presence breeders (see diagrams “b2” and “b3”) mankind during all interval of planning in 500 years provides itself with the electric power under the stable price - hardly above 3 cUSD/(kW×h). Thus if development the NPF`S such as BREST-1200(Pu) will crown the success of the price of manufacture of the electric power will decrease approximately a half-cent for kilowatt-hour, that is essential. Efforts of engineers to develop of the new advanced types the NPF`S therefore is necessary to direct.

Refusal from breeders augments the cost of electric power (see the diagram “b1”). The price of the electric power in this case will be about 18 cUSD/(kW×h) in 15 years SIn, about 12 cUSD/(kW×h) - in 40 years SIn, about 35 cUSD/(kW×h) - in 75 years SIn, at last, the growth of the price of electric power reaches a mark hardly more than 36 cUSD/(kW×h) by the125-th year SIn and it remains at this level up to the end of an interval of planning.

It Is difficult to believe, that people will prefer to pay for electric power not some cents for kilowatt-hour, developing the NPI with breeders, and tens and even hundreds cents for kilowatt-hour, having refused from the NPI with breeders. You see it is always possible to direct the saved money resources on an increase of a standard of living, i.e. on improvement of quality of life and its safety.

For the same reason refusal from breeders from reproduction factor (RF) > 1.0 for the benefit of fast nuclear reactors from RF ~ 1.0 is not the decision of a problem of non-distribution of the nuclear weapon. You see in this case the price of the electric power is increased, by more than in 10 times and makes tens cents for kilowatt-hour.

The received results determine the place of nuclear power in system of a global power production.

The executed system analysis raises hopes one’s a heart that life will force people to be in earnest and yours faith to a choice of the future. The gravity of the moment is, that, knowing the described prospect of the world, smoothly today already it is necessary to reorient investments from traditional power technologies to nuclear power technologies

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